Is Covid-19 A Dystopian Dance (4 of 5)

And so the president turned to science, to doctors for an answer to the question, How dangerous? Now doctors are wonderful people and crucial to us for helping us live better physical lives. But mostly doctors only see a couple of feet beyond themselves. So my doctors look at me, at my condition, and say do this, do that and because my conditions are life threatening if I strictly follow the do’s and don’ts I’ll have a better chance of living longer. It used to be when life was more simpler and more rural your doctor knew you, not academically knew you but experientially knew you because he was part of the same community and knew what his scientific advice meant in terms of how you functioned in that community. My primary doctor kind of knows me because he’s been my doctor for decades and over time has learned who I am. I’ve had three cancer doctors and not one of them “know me.” They look at a screen with my name on it and a diagnosis of why they are seeing me and from their scientific knowledge of why I’m ill work out plans of treatment. They know nothing of my life outside their office. They ask me to do things that might either lightly affect me in that outside or greatly affect me. And if following those “orders” impacts my outside living in their eyes it only affects me and to them it really is a minimal affect. Stay home will affect my socializing but it won’t affect the larger world I live in. It may affect my employment but that won’t affect anyone else other than my place of employment. They’ll just replace me and move on almost like nothing happened. I might personally feel like these are draconian measures but if so it’s only for me. But in the coronavirus I am not the patient, you are not the patient, we all are the patient and that changes everything. With me the doctor looks at the science on the type of cancer I have, and from that makes a prediction on what “might” happen to me.

We need predictions. Here are some world historical facts to help inform our prediction:

  • 1300s Black Plague killed 50 million

  • 1852 3rd cholera killed 1 million

  • 1889 flu killed 1 million

  • 1910 6th cholera killed 800,00

  • 1918 Spanish flu supposedly killed anywhere from 20-50 million (such a wide spread I’d take either the lower number or split it to be 35 million)

  • 1956 Asian flu killed 2 million

  • 1968 flu killed 1 million

  • 2003 SARS killed 774

AIDS has killed at least 36 million and is typically listed as a pandemic but it really is not a pandemic though it spread worldwide. It was not a virus like the flu but a direct transmission, person to person typically through sexual contact, or through the use of needles that were used by an infected person who had AIDS. I’ve been reminded of the AIDS crisis as I was around when it started. Politics then as now was more important than science. It just so happened as a new liberation front was demanding a fundamental change in our beliefs and behavior the Gay Liberation Front. It wasn’t that gays wanted to come out of the closet, they wanted to come out and be equal in lifestyle to heterosexual behavior. As a radical movement they were “in your face” with this and began displaying gay sexual behavior in public and bathhouses for gays sprung up all over. In his book, Dark Agenda, former liberal radical David Horowitz reminds us in his chapter “A Radical Epidemic” that “First it was syphilis and gonorrhea. Gay men made up about 80% of the 700,000 annual patient visits to [San Francisco] VD clinics.” In 2003 after Horowitz had studied the issues of AIDS, “523,442 recorded deaths from AIDS in the United States, most of them young, and previously healthy, gay men.” There was no “stay in place” and social distancing here because the politics of “gay liberation was greater than life and death. I bring this up because if you think science shouldn’t be coopted by politics, it always has, in this case to protect behavior, in today’s case to stop behavior.

The Black Death and the Spanish Flu, the first in 1300’s the latter in 1918 seriously killed a whole lot of people. If we knew then what we know today the Black Death would not have killed so many. We were still short of good medical knowledge in 1918 but have since gained greatly in scientific knowledge and the numbers of dying in a pandemic have dwindled to very low numbers, the latest seriously treated pandemic SARS only saw 774 die from the virus, and yet we think of it as a horrible virus experience.

What does this collection of facts tell you in guiding your prediction of Covid-19? And we have to really leave China’s numbers out because we know they have lied about their numbers. What have we actually experienced, seen with our own eyes to help us answer that question, How dangerous? SoS, speed of spread, seems fast, though not at Mach speed. My family went to Sea World and I was standing before the dolphin tank holding my young daughter watching the dolphins swim. My daughter had anxiety that they would splash her and I told her, no, they’re way across the tank, and it’s a big tank. Just then one began swimming toward us and before I could move he reached us and with a flip of his tail splashed us. Lesson learned, dolphins are exceptionally fast and I’d better move even before I think I need to. But does that make it a giant wave that takes out the whole beach or just parts of the beach? Do I necessarily have to treat the whole beach as I would specific vulnerable parts of the beach? When I was in the Army and one soldier messed up the whole platoon, or sometimes company would be punished. Regardless of their reason for doing that, and they had their reason, I thought it totally unfair.